Banking bonuses: the chart predicting who gets what

Bonus pools at banks this year are down by as much as 30% on 2021, but the pain is not evenly distributed.

Now that the big US banks have reported fourth quarter and full year results for 2022, we have a better idea which businesses performed well and are likely to be treated gently in bonus allocations. We also know which businesses are likely to experience the most swingeing bonus cuts.

Deutsche Bank's banking research team have helpfully gathered this knowledge for Q4 into a single chart, shown below. The key takeaway is that no matter where you work, your bonus should probably ok if you're on a rates desk this year. Conversely, M&A and capital markets bankers everywhere can but weep.

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