Our predictions for total compensation, bank by bank, for 2010

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Yesterday we published alleged salary figures for various different banks this year.

Today we are looking at the likely totality of salary and bonus ie. How much each bank is likely to pay in total.

Needless to say, it will be down: on average, most banks are likely to reduce total compensation per head by anything from 10% to 30%. The biggest losers will probably be at Credit Suisse and RBS.

Compensation figures below are based on headcount at the end of the third quarter and compensation accruals for the first nine months (minus the UK bonus tax and severance pay - where broken out). We've assumed that each bank accrues only 15% of its annual compensation in the final quarter and that headcount at the end of the year is static on Q3.

Not all banks are listed: only those which break out investment banking pay and headcount are included. Absentee banks are likely to pay badly too. The Wall Street Journal has spoken to a Citigroup banker who says colleagues exiting compensation meetings, 'look like they've been hit by a truck.'

Goldman Sachs

Forecast pay per head, full year 2010 $416k

Expected percentage change on 2009: -17%

UBS

Forecast pay per head, full year 2010 CHF364k ($377k)

Expected percentage change on 2009: +2%

(Health warning: A large proportion of UBS's compensation is expected to go to the 427 people it's hired at executive director level and above this year, many of whom are thought to be on guarantees. There's also a possibility that UBS will accrue very little compensation in the fourth quarter.)

JPMorgan

Forecast pay per head, full year 2010 $347k

Expected percentage change on 2009: -8%

Credit Suisse

Forecast pay per head, full year 2010 CHF319k ($331k)

Expected percentage change on 2009: -28%

Deutsche Bank

Forecast pay per head, full year 2010 E307k ($409k)

Expected percentage change on 2009: -12%

BarCap

Forecast pay per head, full year 2010 175k ($276k)

Expected percentage change on 2009: 10%

RBS

Forecast pay per head, full year 2010 124k ($196k)

Expected percentage change on 2009: -29%

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